Despite an early ‘Trump bump’ for the Liberals, however, there is still a month to before Canadians choose who will govern them.
Morgan Little
Kicker
With the upcoming federal election in a month, the Liberal party has seen a surge in polls, but the Conservative Party can still put up a fight in this province.
Before Carney became prime minister, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party were struggling in the polls. Trudeau seemed to have fallen out of favour with voters. The circumstances seemed promising for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative party.
Newfoundland and Labrador were on pace to turn blue with the Conservatives leading in just about every riding in the province in online polls. But, after Trudeau stepped down and Carney replaced him, the polls started shifting across the country, including in this province.
“If we back up just a couple of months, I think the federal Conservatives had a really good shot at winning a number of seats here in the province,” said Memorial University political science associate professor Kelly Blidook, “but we have seen such a big shift in popularity that most pollsters as I understand are now projecting Liberals are going to get elected in most if not all the ridings in the province.”
Carney has borrowed key policies from the Conservatives’ platform by axing the federal carbon tax and eliminating HST tax for first-time buyers of homes worth under $1 million. These announcements helped return the Liberal Party to a more centrist choice for voters, aiding them to gain many voters that might have been on the fence about whom they would vote for.
Canadians have also thrown more support toward the governing party as U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs and make Canada “the 51st state.”
“I think people who were on the fence between the Liberals and Conservatives, or even Liberals and NDP are more likely to vote Liberal in a snap election due to the rhetoric from the south and the strong approach taken by Mark Carney on Trump,” said Cole Hayley, a resident of the Cape Spear riding (formerly called St. John’s South – Mount Pearl). “I’m not sure if it has changed the mind of many staunch Conservatives, but I do believe the fence sitters as well as some historical NDP voters are being swayed.”
Carney started his campaign in St. John’s with a rally Sunday at the St. John’s Convention Centre, where he was met by angry fish harvesters over the reduction in the crab quota for this season’s fishery. Carney did address the fish harvesters during his rally, so voters have to wait to see if this has an effect on the election outcome in this province.
The Conservative Party could use this controversy and another to appeal to angry fish protesters. Conservative Central Newfoundland riding candidate Clifford Small is campaigning largely on the seal hunt, claiming the Liberal party has been trying to make away with the industry for years.
The Conservative Party could also gain some votes here in the province due to the offshore oil and gas industry.
“When I think what I would do if I were the Conservative party, I would imagine leaning into developing the oil and gas sector and painting the Liberals as hostile,” said Memorial University political science professor Scott Andrews. “That would be probably one of the more obvious approaches that they could take.”
The New Democratic Party and Jagmeet Singh have seen a dramatic decline in support throughout Canada and in this province, but they could still gain some votes among left-wing voters.
“The Liberals with Mark Carney have been trying to close some of the distance between themselves and the Conservatives on taxes, on environment and climate, and on energy, being open to new energy projects and things like that, and I think the NDP are going to take advantage of that,” said Andrews.
“They’re on the left of the Liberals and their going to make the point that this is what the Liberals do,” Andrews added. “Sometimes they (the Liberals) campaign from the left, but their real heart of hearts is a centre-right party that’s not for the working people but is for the millionaires and billionaires, the wealthy of this country.”
With a little over a month until people cast their vote, the three contending parties have time to gain voters. The French- language debate among the federal leaders on April 16 and the English-language debate on April 17 will likely play key roles in the election.
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